Following the RBA rate cut in August, the proportion of mortgage holders’ ‘at risk’ of mortgage stress has fallen to its lowest level since February 2023, according to new research by Roy Morgan.

In the 3 months to September 2025, just over a quarter (25.9%) of mortgage holders- around 13.6 million people- were considered ‘at risk’ of mortgage stress. This is a 2% decrease from August 2025 (27.9%).

Meanwhile, the number of Australians considered ‘extremely at risk’ of mortgage stress remained broadly in line with the long-term, two-decade average in September 2025 at 16.3% or around 858,000 mortgage holders.

Mortgage holders are considered ‘at risk’ if they are paying more than a certain proportion of their after-tax income towards their home loan, based on the relevant standard variable rate reported by the RBA and the original loan amount.

Mortgagors are considered ‘extremely at risk’ if even the interest-only payments exceed that proportion of household income.

Although rate cuts have a reduction in mortgage stress, they can have an impact in the longer term, as new buyers enter the market and are able to borrow more money – larger loans to buy the best house they can afford- leading to subsequent mortgage stress due to the larger size of the average loan. 

Further changes to interest rates (up or down) will impact future mortgage stress results.